The statement by the National Bank of Serbia says that Serbia has managed to retain its rating due to the adoption of measures of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, as well as due to the expected conclusion of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it is noted that the fiscal deficit remains high.
It is estimated that Serbia remains vulnerable to external shocks, but the dinar exchange rate is expected to get stabilised in the coming period due to fiscal consolidation, agreement with the IMF, a high level of foreign exchange reserves and the willingness of the National Bank of Serbia to mitigate short-term exchange rate fluctuations.
Fitch Ratings expects that measures of fiscal consolidation will have a negative impact on local demand in the short term, but that structural reforms will spur economic activity in the medium term.
In the medium term, a gradual decrease of the current deficit of the balance of payments is expected, it is added in the statement.