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The Government of the Republic of Serbia

In the service of citizens

Major wave of H1N1 flu expected in autumn

Belgrade, 24 July 2009

Head of the Health Ministry’s special working group for the prevention and control of pandemic flu Predrag Kon said today that concerning the influenza A (H1N1) virus the situation in Serbia is uncertain and seems to be getting worse. It is expected that upwards of 2 million people in Serbia will become infected over a period of two to three months in the autumn.

Predrag Kon

Author: Beta

Speaking at a press conference at the Milan Jovanovic Batut public health institute, Kon said that the clinical picture of the flu during that time is expected to be mild.

He said that nearly 200,000 patients will display mild symptoms while around 25,000 are expected to develop more severe symptoms and will need hospitalization.

He specified that when it is considered that the flu is spreading quickly he will recommend that the Health Ministry declare an epidemic.

He said that after the declaration it will be decided what measures need to be implemented.

The exact nature of the measures will depend on the situation and it cannot be said in advance what they will be. However, certain general steps have been envisaged, such as the closing down of schools, colleges, theatres and a ban on pubic gatherings, said Kon.

He added that the possibility of changing the working hours of transport and energy employees and of the public and utility sectors cannot be excluded, but it is highly unlikely that this will be necessary.

Kon said that the process of monitoring the spread of the H1N1 virus must be made more comprehensive to include the virological examination of all suspect flu cases in areas where cases have not occurred earlier and that the epidemiological monitoring should function as in the winter flu season. This means that weekly reports on flu like cases will be made, explained Kon, adding that test samples will be taken from patients, presenting a clear clinical picture.

He said that from 100 to 150 doctors will be given special training to carry out heightened monitoring.

Tomica Milosavljevic

Author: Beta

Health Minister Tomica Milosavljevic said that 109 cases of A (H1N1) influenza have so far been confirmed in Serbia, adding that although viruses usually do not spread that fast during the summer season, the number of infected has risen owing to Universiade and Exit.

A total of 6 athletes who participated in the Universiade and 69 people who attended the Exit music festival have been diagnosed with H1N1 influenza, he specified, adding that 31 residents of Novi Sad have also been infected.

Although the epidemiological situation is uncertain and has a tendency to worsen, a localised spread of the virus has not yet been recorded, said the Minister.

He warned that a large number of Serbian citizens living abroad will spend their holidays in Serbia and many Serbian tourists will soon return from foreign summer resorts, which could considerably speed up the spread of the virus.

Milosavljevic said that citizens are still unable to purchase the vaccine as it has not yet been produced, adding that the Health Ministry is in close contact with all vaccine producers.

According to him, the Health Ministry will provide around 3 million doses of the vaccine to the 1.5 million infected persons at most risk.

There is no reason to panic, as the Serbian health system is capable of hospitalising all of those infected, concluded Minister Milosavljevic.